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Dennis Champion v Paul Garbutt (Mon 27 Nov 2017)

Match won by Paul Garbutt. Result: 15-13,15-7,8-15,5-15,6-15.

Starting level for Dennis Champion: 846, level confidence: 55%.
Starting level for Paul Garbutt: 2,195, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Paul Garbutt to win as he is currently playing 159% better than Dennis Champion.

Paul Garbutt won 60% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 33% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Garbutt played 16% better than Dennis Champion in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Paul Garbutt was taking it easy by anything up to 20%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,337 and 2,195 without affecting his level.

As Paul Garbutt has played below his allowed range at 1,144, his level reduction is 17% before damping. On the assumption that Paul Garbutt would normally have been playing at level 1,761 (based on typical behaviour), Dennis Champion played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 34%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.2% and 20% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Garbutt changes to -7.1% and Dennis Champion changes to +20%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Garbutt becomes -3.8% and for Dennis Champion becomes +11%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Vintage Winter 2017/18' so the adjustment for Paul Garbutt is -2.8% and for Dennis Champion is +8.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Garbutt: 87%, Dennis Champion: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Garbutt: 58%, Dennis Champion: 49%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Dennis Champion: 916, level confidence: 49%.
Final level for Paul Garbutt: 2,132, level confidence: 58%.