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Abdullah Al Muzayen v Umair Zaman (Fri 24 Nov 2017)

Match won by Abdullah Al Muzayen. Result: 11-4,11-8,11-4.

Starting level for Abdullah Al Muzayen: 23,055, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for Umair Zaman: 6,795, level confidence: 47%.
Abdullah Al Muzayen to win as he is currently playing 239% better than Umair Zaman.

Abdullah Al Muzayen won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Abdullah Al Muzayen played 106% better than Umair Zaman in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Abdullah Al Muzayen was taking it easy by anything up to 29%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 10,812 and 23,055 without affecting his level.

In this case, Abdullah Al Muzayen played at level 15,191 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Abdullah Al Muzayen would normally have been playing at level 16,467 (based on typical behaviour), Umair Zaman played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Abdullah Al Muzayen changes to 0% and Umair Zaman changes to +4.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Abdullah Al Muzayen becomes 0% and for Umair Zaman becomes +2%.

Given Umair Zaman's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 7.1% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'PSA Qatar Circuit No4' so the adjustment for Abdullah Al Muzayen is 0% and for Umair Zaman is +1.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Abdullah Al Muzayen: 75%, Umair Zaman: 68%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Abdullah Al Muzayen: 59%, Umair Zaman: 53%.

Final level for Abdullah Al Muzayen: 23,055, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Umair Zaman: 6,891, level confidence: 53%.