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Abdullah Al Muzayen v Angus Gillams (Sat 25 Nov 2017)

Match won by Abdullah Al Muzayen. Result: 14-12,11-6,11-7.

Starting level for Abdullah Al Muzayen: 23,016, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Angus Gillams: 20,744, level confidence: 63%.
Abdullah Al Muzayen to win as he is currently playing 11% better than Angus Gillams.

Abdullah Al Muzayen won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 44% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Abdullah Al Muzayen played 48% better than Angus Gillams in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Abdullah Al Muzayen actually played at a level of 26,549 and Angus Gillams at a level of 17,983. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Abdullah Al Muzayen changes to +15% and Angus Gillams changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Abdullah Al Muzayen becomes +3.6% and for Angus Gillams becomes -3.4%.

Given Abdullah Al Muzayen's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 44% has been applied to his level change.

Given Angus Gillams's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 41% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'PSA Qatar Circuit No4' so the adjustment for Abdullah Al Muzayen is +1.8% and for Angus Gillams is -1.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Abdullah Al Muzayen: 76%, Angus Gillams: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Abdullah Al Muzayen: 66%, Angus Gillams: 69%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Abdullah Al Muzayen: 23,441, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Angus Gillams: 20,376, level confidence: 69%.