Youssef Soliman v Abdullah Al Muzayen (Sun 26 Nov 2017)
Match won by Youssef Soliman. Result: 12-14,11-2,14-16,11-4,11-7.
Starting level for
Youssef Soliman:
29,648, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for
Abdullah Al Muzayen:
23,601, level confidence: 66%.
Youssef Soliman to win as he is currently playing
26% better than Abdullah Al Muzayen.
Youssef Soliman won 60% of the games and 58% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 37% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Youssef Soliman played
17% better than Abdullah Al Muzayen in this match.
As Youssef Soliman has played below his allowed range at 28,042, his level reduction is 1.7% before damping. On the assumption that Youssef Soliman would normally have been playing at level 29,144 (based on typical behaviour), Abdullah Al Muzayen played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.8%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.5% and 2.5% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Youssef Soliman changes to -1.5% and Abdullah Al Muzayen changes to +2.3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Youssef Soliman becomes -0.6% and for Abdullah Al Muzayen becomes +1%.
Given Youssef Soliman's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 55% has been applied to his level change.
Given Abdullah Al Muzayen's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 45% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'PSA Qatar Circuit No4' so the adjustment for Youssef Soliman is 0% and for Abdullah Al Muzayen is +0.5%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Youssef Soliman: 78%, Abdullah Al Muzayen: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Youssef Soliman: 75%, Abdullah Al Muzayen: 78%.
Final level for Youssef Soliman:
29,560, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Abdullah Al Muzayen:
23,718, level confidence: 78%.