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Matthew Marsden v Andres Ballesteros (Sun 26 Nov 2017)

Match won by Matthew Marsden. Result: 11-1,11-2,11-3.

Starting level for Matthew Marsden: 674, level confidence: 46%.
Starting level for Andres Ballesteros: 330, level confidence: 30%.
Matthew Marsden to win as he is currently playing 104% better than Andres Ballesteros.

Matthew Marsden won all of the games and 85% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 450% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matthew Marsden played 450% better than Andres Ballesteros in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Matthew Marsden actually played at a level of 1,106 and Andres Ballesteros at a level of 201. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 64% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 41% and 41% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matthew Marsden changes to +27% and Andres Ballesteros changes to -41%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matthew Marsden becomes +14.5% and for Andres Ballesteros becomes -21%.

Apply match/event weighting of 70% for 'Surrey Junior League 2017/18' so the adjustment for Matthew Marsden is +10.1% and for Andres Ballesteros is -14%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Andres Ballesteros is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matthew Marsden: 68%, Andres Ballesteros: 55%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matthew Marsden: 41%, Andres Ballesteros: 33%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Matthew Marsden: 743, level confidence: 41%.
Final level for Andres Ballesteros: 315, level confidence: 33%.