SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Adam Iqbal v Andres Ballesteros (Sun 26 Nov 2017)

Match won by Andres Ballesteros. Result: 6-11,8-11,8-11.

Starting level for Adam Iqbal: 341, level confidence: 29%.
Starting level for Andres Ballesteros: 315, level confidence: 33%.
Adam Iqbal to win as he is currently playing 8% better than Andres Ballesteros.

Andres Ballesteros won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andres Ballesteros played 52% better than Adam Iqbal in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Andres Ballesteros actually played at a level of 404 and Adam Iqbal at a level of 266. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andres Ballesteros changes to +23% and Adam Iqbal changes to -27%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andres Ballesteros becomes +12.7% and for Adam Iqbal becomes -14%.

Apply match/event weighting of 70% for 'Surrey Junior League 2017/18' so the adjustment for Andres Ballesteros is +8.9% and for Adam Iqbal is -9.6%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Adam Iqbal is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andres Ballesteros: 58%, Adam Iqbal: 54%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andres Ballesteros: 45%, Adam Iqbal: 42%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Adam Iqbal: 326, level confidence: 42%.
Final level for Andres Ballesteros: 344, level confidence: 45%.