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Harry Leitch v Ben Ford (Mon 04 Dec 2017)

Match won by Ben Ford. Result: 11-6,6-11,6-11,11-6,7-11.

Starting level for Harry Leitch: 11,359, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ben Ford: 13,558, level confidence: 89%. Set manually.
Ben Ford to win as he is currently playing 19% better than Harry Leitch.

Ben Ford won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 10% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ben Ford played 10% better than Harry Leitch in this match.

As Ben Ford has played below his allowed range at 12,872, his level reduction is 3.1% before damping. On the assumption that Ben Ford would normally have been playing at level 13,428 (based on typical behaviour), Harry Leitch played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.7%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ben Ford changes to -2.4% and Harry Leitch changes to +3.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ben Ford becomes -1.1% and for Harry Leitch becomes +1.5%.

Given Ben Ford's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 26% has been applied to his level change.

Given Harry Leitch's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 21% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Middlesex Seniors League' so the adjustment for Ben Ford is -0.7% and for Harry Leitch is +1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ben Ford: 94%, Harry Leitch: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ben Ford: 91%, Harry Leitch: 84%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Harry Leitch: 11,496, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Ben Ford: 13,503, level confidence: 91%.