Rob Corlett v Philip Pereira (Sat 09 Dec 2017)
Match won by Philip Pereira. Result: 4-15,14-16,15-10,12-15.
Starting level for
Rob Corlett:
807, level confidence: 34%.
Starting level for
Philip Pereira:
901, level confidence: 68%.
Philip Pereira to win as he is currently playing
12% better than Rob Corlett.
Philip Pereira won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Philip Pereira played
25% better than Rob Corlett in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Philip Pereira actually played at a level of
953 and Rob Corlett at a level of
763. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.7% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Philip Pereira changes to +2.7% and Rob Corlett changes to -5.4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Philip Pereira becomes +2.7% and for Rob Corlett becomes -4.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Vets Winter 2017/18' so the adjustment for Philip Pereira is +2% and for Rob Corlett is -3.2%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Philip Pereira: 83%, Rob Corlett: 58%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Philip Pereira: 78%, Rob Corlett: 55%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Rob Corlett:
781, level confidence: 55%.
Final level for Philip Pereira:
918, level confidence: 78%.