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Sara Pinggera v George Gervasio (Sun 10 Dec 2017)

Match won by George Gervasio. Result: 11-13,4-11,3-11.

Starting level for Sara Pinggera: 739, level confidence: 52%.
Starting level for George Gervasio: 2,575, level confidence: 16%.
George Gervasio to win as she is currently playing 248% better than Sara Pinggera.

George Gervasio won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that George Gervasio played 94% better than Sara Pinggera in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that George Gervasio was taking it easy by anything up to 30%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 1,152 and 2,575 without affecting her level.

In this case, George Gervasio played at level 1,615 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that George Gervasio would normally have been playing at level 1,815 (based on typical behaviour), Sara Pinggera played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 12%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 6.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for George Gervasio changes to 0% and Sara Pinggera changes to +1.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for George Gervasio becomes 0% and for Sara Pinggera becomes +1.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 70% for 'Surrey Junior League 2017/18' so the adjustment for George Gervasio is 0% and for Sara Pinggera is +1.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. George Gervasio: 40%, Sara Pinggera: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. George Gervasio: 30%, Sara Pinggera: 54%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Sara Pinggera: 751, level confidence: 54%.
Final level for George Gervasio: 2,581, level confidence: 30%.