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Arnav Aggaval v Fraser Pennells (Sun 10 Dec 2017)

Match won by Arnav Aggaval. Result: 11-1,11-5,11-5.

Starting level for Arnav Aggaval: 123, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Fraser Pennells: 46, level confidence: 20%.
Arnav Aggaval to win as she is currently playing 167% better than Fraser Pennells.

Arnav Aggaval won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Arnav Aggaval played 200% better than Fraser Pennells in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Arnav Aggaval actually played at a level of 130 and Fraser Pennells at a level of 43. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.9% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.6% and 3.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Arnav Aggaval changes to +1.1% and Fraser Pennells changes to -3.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Arnav Aggaval becomes +1.1% and for Fraser Pennells becomes -3.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 70% for 'Surrey Junior League 2017/18' so the adjustment for Arnav Aggaval is +0.8% and for Fraser Pennells is -2.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Arnav Aggaval: 79%, Fraser Pennells: 45%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Arnav Aggaval: 75%, Fraser Pennells: 42%.

Final level for Arnav Aggaval: 124, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Fraser Pennells: 45, level confidence: 42%.