Arnav Aggaval v Fraser Pennells (Sun 10 Dec 2017)
Match won by Arnav Aggaval. Result: 11-1,11-5,11-5.
Starting level for
Arnav Aggaval:
123, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for
Fraser Pennells:
46, level confidence: 20%.
Arnav Aggaval to win as she is currently playing
167% better than Fraser Pennells.
Arnav Aggaval won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if she was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Arnav Aggaval played
200% better than Fraser Pennells in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Arnav Aggaval actually played at a level of
130 and Fraser Pennells at a level of
43. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.9% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.6% and 3.6% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Arnav Aggaval changes to +1.1% and Fraser Pennells changes to -3.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Arnav Aggaval becomes +1.1% and for Fraser Pennells becomes -3.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 70% for 'Surrey Junior League 2017/18' so the adjustment for Arnav Aggaval is +0.8% and for Fraser Pennells is -2.3%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Arnav Aggaval: 79%, Fraser Pennells: 45%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Arnav Aggaval: 75%, Fraser Pennells: 42%.
Final level for Arnav Aggaval:
124, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Fraser Pennells:
45, level confidence: 42%.