SquashLevels calculations
Harry Lipscomb v Fraser Pennells (Sun 10 Dec 2017)
Match won by Fraser Pennells. Result: 11-8,10-12,9-11,13-15.
Starting level for
Harry Lipscomb:
53, level confidence: 40%.
Starting level for
Fraser Pennells:
45, level confidence: 42%.
Harry Lipscomb to win as he is currently playing
18% better than Fraser Pennells.
Fraser Pennells won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 7% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Fraser Pennells played
19% better than Harry Lipscomb in this match.
Special case for levels < 100 as these are often players who are new to the game and getting better fast. Levels can change quickly for these players and a default level increase of 1 has been added to both players for playing another match.
Without any limiting, both players would need to be adjusted by 18%. The level change for Fraser Pennells has not been limited and has increased to
54. The level change for Harry Lipscomb has been limited to a decrease of 6% to
50.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Fraser Pennells: 56%, Harry Lipscomb: 55%.
Reduce level confidence based on how much adjustment is needed. Fraser Pennells: 52%, Harry Lipscomb: 50%.
Final level for Harry Lipscomb:
50, level confidence: 50%.
Final level for Fraser Pennells:
54, level confidence: 52%.