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Henry Powell v Fraser Pennells (Sun 10 Dec 2017)

Match won by Henry Powell. Result: 11-5,11-5,11-2.

Starting level for Henry Powell: 137, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Fraser Pennells: 54, level confidence: 52%.
Henry Powell to win as he is currently playing 154% better than Fraser Pennells.

Henry Powell won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Henry Powell played 175% better than Fraser Pennells in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Henry Powell actually played at a level of 143 and Fraser Pennells at a level of 52. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.1% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.6% and 2.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Henry Powell changes to +2.1% and Fraser Pennells changes to -2.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Henry Powell becomes +2.1% and for Fraser Pennells becomes -2.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 70% for 'Surrey Junior League 2017/18' so the adjustment for Henry Powell is +1.5% and for Fraser Pennells is -1.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Henry Powell: 79%, Fraser Pennells: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Henry Powell: 76%, Fraser Pennells: 69%.

Final level for Henry Powell: 139, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Fraser Pennells: 53, level confidence: 69%.