Henry Powell v Fraser Pennells (Sun 10 Dec 2017)
Match won by Henry Powell. Result: 11-5,11-5,11-2.
Starting level for
Henry Powell:
137, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for
Fraser Pennells:
54, level confidence: 52%.
Henry Powell to win as he is currently playing
154% better than Fraser Pennells.
Henry Powell won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Henry Powell played
175% better than Fraser Pennells in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Henry Powell actually played at a level of
143 and Fraser Pennells at a level of
52. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.1% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.6% and 2.6% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Henry Powell changes to +2.1% and Fraser Pennells changes to -2.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Henry Powell becomes +2.1% and for Fraser Pennells becomes -2.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 70% for 'Surrey Junior League 2017/18' so the adjustment for Henry Powell is +1.5% and for Fraser Pennells is -1.8%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Henry Powell: 79%, Fraser Pennells: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Henry Powell: 76%, Fraser Pennells: 69%.
Final level for Henry Powell:
139, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Fraser Pennells:
53, level confidence: 69%.