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Toby Brune v Andres Ballesteros (Sun 10 Dec 2017)

Match won by Toby Brune. Result: 11-8,11-4,11-5.

Starting level for Toby Brune: 541, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Andres Ballesteros: 344, level confidence: 43%.
Toby Brune to win as he is currently playing 57% better than Andres Ballesteros.

Toby Brune won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Toby Brune played 94% better than Andres Ballesteros in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Toby Brune actually played at a level of 601 and Andres Ballesteros at a level of 310. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 11.1% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.8% and 8.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Toby Brune changes to +6% and Andres Ballesteros changes to -8.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Toby Brune becomes +4.5% and for Andres Ballesteros becomes -5.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 70% for 'Surrey Junior League 2017/18' so the adjustment for Toby Brune is +3.1% and for Andres Ballesteros is -4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Toby Brune: 79%, Andres Ballesteros: 65%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Toby Brune: 71%, Andres Ballesteros: 59%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Toby Brune: 559, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Andres Ballesteros: 331, level confidence: 59%.