Abdullah Al Muzayen v Ali Alramezi (Fri 15 Dec 2017)
Match won by Abdullah Al Muzayen. Result: 11-5,11-7,5-11,11-6.
Starting level for
Abdullah Al Muzayen:
23,588, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Ali Alramezi:
15,762, level confidence: 10%.
Abdullah Al Muzayen to win as he is currently playing
50% better than Ali Alramezi.
Abdullah Al Muzayen won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 31% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Abdullah Al Muzayen played
27% better than Ali Alramezi in this match.
As Abdullah Al Muzayen has played below his allowed range at 20,691, his level reduction is 3.4% before damping. On the assumption that Abdullah Al Muzayen would normally have been playing at level 22,461 (based on typical behaviour), Ali Alramezi played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.9%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.7% and 4.8% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Abdullah Al Muzayen changes to -0.4% and Ali Alramezi changes to +4.8%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Abdullah Al Muzayen becomes -0.2% and for Ali Alramezi becomes +1.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Ksf Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Abdullah Al Muzayen: 85%, Ali Alramezi: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Abdullah Al Muzayen: 78%, Ali Alramezi: 29%.
Final level for Abdullah Al Muzayen:
23,551, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Ali Alramezi:
16,039, level confidence: 29%.