Abdullah Al Muzayen v Ammar Altamimi (Mon 18 Dec 2017)
Match won by Abdullah Al Muzayen. Result: 11-5,11-5,13-11.
Starting level for
Abdullah Al Muzayen:
23,595, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Ammar Altamimi:
22,582, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Abdullah Al Muzayen to win as he is currently playing
4% better than Ammar Altamimi.
Abdullah Al Muzayen won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 67% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Abdullah Al Muzayen played
67% better than Ammar Altamimi in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Abdullah Al Muzayen actually played at a level of
29,800 and Ammar Altamimi at a level of
17,880. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 26% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Abdullah Al Muzayen changes to +23% and Ammar Altamimi changes to -26%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Abdullah Al Muzayen becomes +5.1% and for Ammar Altamimi becomes -5.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Ksf Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Ammar Altamimi is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Abdullah Al Muzayen: 93%, Ammar Altamimi: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Abdullah Al Muzayen: 74%, Ammar Altamimi: 69%.
A final adjustment of +1.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Abdullah Al Muzayen:
24,699, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Ammar Altamimi:
22,102, level confidence: 69%.