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Abdullah Al Muzayen v Iker Pajares (Wed 20 Dec 2017)

Match won by Abdullah Al Muzayen. Result: 11-4,11-5,11-3.

Starting level for Abdullah Al Muzayen: 26,289, level confidence: 55%.
Starting level for Iker Pajares: 27,727, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Iker Pajares to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Abdullah Al Muzayen.

Abdullah Al Muzayen won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Abdullah Al Muzayen played 175% better than Iker Pajares in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Abdullah Al Muzayen actually played at a level of 44,772 and Iker Pajares at a level of 16,281. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 70% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Abdullah Al Muzayen changes to +68% and Iker Pajares changes to -44%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Abdullah Al Muzayen becomes +12% and for Iker Pajares becomes -8.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Ksf Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Abdullah Al Muzayen is limited to +6% and Iker Pajares is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Abdullah Al Muzayen: 74%, Iker Pajares: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Abdullah Al Muzayen: 44%, Iker Pajares: 50%.

A final adjustment of +0.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Abdullah Al Muzayen: 27,875, level confidence: 44%.
Final level for Iker Pajares: 26,762, level confidence: 50%.