Andrew Bidnell v Kevin Blythen (Sat 06 Jan 2018)
Match won by Andrew Bidnell. Result: 15-10,15-10,15-12.
Starting level for
Andrew Bidnell:
936, level confidence: 19%.
Starting level for
Kevin Blythen:
511, level confidence: 14%.
Andrew Bidnell to win as he is currently playing
83% better than Kevin Blythen.
Andrew Bidnell won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andrew Bidnell played
45% better than Kevin Blythen in this match.
As Andrew Bidnell has played below his allowed range at 744, his level reduction is 0% before damping. On the assumption that Andrew Bidnell would normally have been playing at level 846 (based on typical behaviour), Kevin Blythen played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.7%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.9% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andrew Bidnell changes to 0% and Kevin Blythen changes to +4.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andrew Bidnell becomes -0.1% and for Kevin Blythen becomes +4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Vets Winter 2017/18' so the adjustment for Andrew Bidnell is 0% and for Kevin Blythen is +3%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andrew Bidnell: 44%, Kevin Blythen: 37%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andrew Bidnell: 39%, Kevin Blythen: 33%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Andrew Bidnell:
934, level confidence: 39%.
Final level for Kevin Blythen:
525, level confidence: 33%.