Ondrej Uherka v Harry Leitch (Mon 08 Jan 2018)
Match won by Ondrej Uherka. Result: 11-4,11-8,11-3.
Starting level for
Ondrej Uherka:
16,048, level confidence: 48%.
Starting level for
Harry Leitch:
11,656, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Ondrej Uherka to win as he is currently playing
38% better than Harry Leitch.
Ondrej Uherka won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ondrej Uherka played
120% better than Harry Leitch in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ondrej Uherka actually played at a level of
20,286 and Harry Leitch at a level of
9,221. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 26% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 22% and 22% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ondrej Uherka changes to +22% and Harry Leitch changes to -14%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ondrej Uherka becomes +5.3% and for Harry Leitch becomes -4%.
Given Ondrej Uherka's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 32% has been applied to his level change.
Given Harry Leitch's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 22% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Middlesex Seniors League' so the adjustment for Ondrej Uherka is +3% and for Harry Leitch is -2.4%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ondrej Uherka: 70%, Harry Leitch: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ondrej Uherka: 55%, Harry Leitch: 67%.
A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Ondrej Uherka:
16,577, level confidence: 55%.
Final level for Harry Leitch:
11,408, level confidence: 67%.