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Harry Leitch v Name withheld (Wed 10 Jan 2018)

Match won by Harry Leitch. Result: 11-8,11-6,11-6.

Starting level for Harry Leitch: 11,473, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Name withheld: 7,940, level confidence: 50%.
Harry Leitch to win as he is currently playing 44% better than Name withheld.

Harry Leitch won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harry Leitch played 65% better than Name withheld in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Harry Leitch actually played at a level of 12,260 and Name withheld at a level of 7,430. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.9% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.7% and 5.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harry Leitch changes to +4.3% and Name withheld changes to -5.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harry Leitch becomes +1.8% and for Name withheld becomes -2.3%.

Given Harry Leitch's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 21% has been applied to his level change.

Given Name withheld's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 11% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2017/18' so the adjustment for Harry Leitch is +1.1% and for Name withheld is -1.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harry Leitch: 81%, Name withheld: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harry Leitch: 76%, Name withheld: 66%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Harry Leitch: 11,581, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Name withheld: 7,809, level confidence: 66%.