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Tom Patterson v Andres Ballesteros (Sun 21 Jan 2018)

Match won by Tom Patterson. Result: 9-11,11-4,11-4,11-2.

Starting level for Tom Patterson: 628, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Andres Ballesteros: 332, level confidence: 58%.
Tom Patterson to win as he is currently playing 89% better than Andres Ballesteros.

Tom Patterson won 75% of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 100% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Patterson played 50% better than Andres Ballesteros in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Tom Patterson was taking it easy by anything up to 11%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 486 and 628 without affecting his level.

In this case, Tom Patterson played at level 528 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Tom Patterson would normally have been playing at level 562 (based on typical behaviour), Andres Ballesteros played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Patterson changes to 0% and Andres Ballesteros changes to +4.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Patterson becomes 0% and for Andres Ballesteros becomes +3.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 70% for 'Surrey Junior League 2017/18' so the adjustment for Tom Patterson is 0% and for Andres Ballesteros is +2.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Patterson: 82%, Andres Ballesteros: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Patterson: 73%, Andres Ballesteros: 68%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tom Patterson: 630, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Andres Ballesteros: 342, level confidence: 68%.