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Harry Leitch v Rui Soares (Mon 22 Jan 2018)

Match won by Rui Soares. Result: 6-11,9-11,11-13.

Starting level for Harry Leitch: 11,584, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Rui Soares: 24,701, level confidence: 59%.
Rui Soares to win as he is currently playing 113% better than Harry Leitch.

Rui Soares won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 35% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rui Soares played 41% better than Harry Leitch in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Rui Soares was taking it easy by anything up to 14%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 17,548 and 24,701 without affecting his level.

As Rui Soares has played below his allowed range at 16,950, his level reduction is 3.5% before damping. On the assumption that Rui Soares would normally have been playing at level 21,219 (based on typical behaviour), Harry Leitch played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 14%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.4% and 9.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rui Soares changes to -2.4% and Harry Leitch changes to +7.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rui Soares becomes -1% and for Harry Leitch becomes +2.5%.

Given Rui Soares's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 47% has been applied to his level change.

Given Harry Leitch's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 21% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Middlesex Seniors League' so the adjustment for Rui Soares is -0.5% and for Harry Leitch is +1.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rui Soares: 77%, Harry Leitch: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rui Soares: 63%, Harry Leitch: 69%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Harry Leitch: 11,794, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Rui Soares: 24,638, level confidence: 63%.