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John Warnants v Andrew Bidnell (Sat 27 Jan 2018)

Match won by Andrew Bidnell. Result: 8-15,5-15,5-15.

Starting level for John Warnants: 673, level confidence: 56%.
Starting level for Andrew Bidnell: 933, level confidence: 36%.
Andrew Bidnell to win as he is currently playing 39% better than John Warnants.

Andrew Bidnell won all of the games and 71% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 150% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andrew Bidnell played 150% better than John Warnants in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Andrew Bidnell actually played at a level of 1,253 and John Warnants at a level of 501. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 34% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 28% and 28% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andrew Bidnell changes to +28% and John Warnants changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andrew Bidnell becomes +15% and for John Warnants becomes -9.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Vets Winter 2017/18' so the adjustment for Andrew Bidnell is +11% and for John Warnants is -7%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Andrew Bidnell is limited to +10% and John Warnants is limited to -5.8% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andrew Bidnell: 60%, John Warnants: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andrew Bidnell: 44%, John Warnants: 56%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for John Warnants: 635, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Andrew Bidnell: 1,025, level confidence: 44%.