Harry Leitch v Paul Boyle (Mon 29 Jan 2018)
Match won by Harry Leitch. Result: 11-7,11-7,11-6.
Starting level for
Harry Leitch:
11,995, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for
Paul Boyle:
8,474, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Harry Leitch to win as he is currently playing
42% better than Paul Boyle.
Harry Leitch won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harry Leitch played
65% better than Paul Boyle in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Harry Leitch actually played at a level of
12,950 and Paul Boyle at a level of
7,849. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.7% and 6.7% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harry Leitch changes to +6.7% and Paul Boyle changes to -5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harry Leitch becomes +2.3% and for Paul Boyle becomes -2.1%.
Given Harry Leitch's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 22% has been applied to his level change.
Given Paul Boyle's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 13% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Middlesex Seniors League' so the adjustment for Harry Leitch is +1.4% and for Paul Boyle is -1.4%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harry Leitch: 80%, Paul Boyle: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harry Leitch: 74%, Paul Boyle: 85%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Harry Leitch:
12,193, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Paul Boyle:
8,381, level confidence: 85%.