SquashLevels calculations
Abdullah Al Muzayen v Sean Conroy (Tue 30 Jan 2018)
Match won by Abdullah Al Muzayen. Result: 11-7,11-6,11-5.
Starting level for
Abdullah Al Muzayen:
27,748, level confidence: 37%.
Starting level for
Sean Conroy:
14,360, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Abdullah Al Muzayen to win as he is currently playing
93% better than Sean Conroy.
Abdullah Al Muzayen won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Abdullah Al Muzayen played
83% better than Sean Conroy in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Abdullah Al Muzayen was taking it easy by anything up to 11%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 21,222 and 27,748 without affecting his level.
In this case, Abdullah Al Muzayen played at level 26,327 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Sean Conroy is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Abdullah Al Muzayen: 61%, Sean Conroy: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Abdullah Al Muzayen: 59%, Sean Conroy: 82%.
Final level for Abdullah Al Muzayen:
27,748, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Sean Conroy:
14,360, level confidence: 82%.