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Abdullah Al Muzayen v Iker Pajares Bernabeu (Thu 01 Feb 2018)

Match won by Abdullah Al Muzayen. Result: 12-14,16-14,9-11,11-8,12-10.

Starting level for Abdullah Al Muzayen: 28,014, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 27,297, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Abdullah Al Muzayen to win as he is currently playing 3% better than Iker Pajares Bernabeu.

Abdullah Al Muzayen won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 5% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Abdullah Al Muzayen played 9% better than Iker Pajares Bernabeu in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Abdullah Al Muzayen actually played at a level of 28,846 and Iker Pajares Bernabeu at a level of 26,509. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Abdullah Al Muzayen changes to +2.9% and Iker Pajares Bernabeu changes to -2.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Abdullah Al Muzayen becomes +1.2% and for Iker Pajares Bernabeu becomes -1.1%.

Given Abdullah Al Muzayen's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 52% has been applied to his level change.

Given Iker Pajares Bernabeu's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 51% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'PSA Qatar Circuit No6' so the adjustment for Abdullah Al Muzayen is +0.6% and for Iker Pajares Bernabeu is -0.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Abdullah Al Muzayen: 84%, Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Abdullah Al Muzayen: 82%, Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 85%.

Final level for Abdullah Al Muzayen: 28,178, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 27,150, level confidence: 85%.