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Abdullah Al Muzayen v Abhay Singh (Fri 02 Feb 2018)

Match won by Abdullah Al Muzayen. Result: 11-2,11-3,11-2.

Starting level for Abdullah Al Muzayen: 28,138, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Abhay Singh: 16,888, level confidence: 61%.
Abdullah Al Muzayen to win as he is currently playing 67% better than Abhay Singh.

Abdullah Al Muzayen won all of the games and 83% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 371% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Abdullah Al Muzayen played 371% better than Abhay Singh in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Abdullah Al Muzayen actually played at a level of 47,331 and Abhay Singh at a level of 10,040. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 68% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 50% and 50% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Abdullah Al Muzayen changes to +37% and Abhay Singh changes to -50%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Abdullah Al Muzayen becomes +7.3% and for Abhay Singh becomes -10.2%.

Given Abdullah Al Muzayen's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 52% has been applied to his level change.

Given Abhay Singh's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 33% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'PSA Qatar Circuit No6' so the adjustment for Abdullah Al Muzayen is +3.6% and for Abhay Singh is -5.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Abdullah Al Muzayen: 90%, Abhay Singh: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Abdullah Al Muzayen: 54%, Abhay Singh: 46%.

Final level for Abdullah Al Muzayen: 29,147, level confidence: 54%.
Final level for Abhay Singh: 16,084, level confidence: 46%.