Abdullah Al Muzayen v Abhay Singh (Fri 02 Feb 2018)
Match won by Abdullah Al Muzayen. Result: 11-2,11-3,11-2.
Starting level for
Abdullah Al Muzayen:
28,138, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Abhay Singh:
16,888, level confidence: 61%.
Abdullah Al Muzayen to win as he is currently playing
67% better than Abhay Singh.
Abdullah Al Muzayen won all of the games and 83% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 371% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Abdullah Al Muzayen played
371% better than Abhay Singh in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Abdullah Al Muzayen actually played at a level of
47,331 and Abhay Singh at a level of
10,040. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 68% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 50% and 50% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Abdullah Al Muzayen changes to +37% and Abhay Singh changes to -50%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Abdullah Al Muzayen becomes +7.3% and for Abhay Singh becomes -10.2%.
Given Abdullah Al Muzayen's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 52% has been applied to his level change.
Given Abhay Singh's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 33% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'PSA Qatar Circuit No6' so the adjustment for Abdullah Al Muzayen is +3.6% and for Abhay Singh is -5.5%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Abdullah Al Muzayen: 90%, Abhay Singh: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Abdullah Al Muzayen: 54%, Abhay Singh: 46%.
Final level for Abdullah Al Muzayen:
29,147, level confidence: 54%.
Final level for Abhay Singh:
16,084, level confidence: 46%.