Seigo Masuda v Harry Leitch (Mon 05 Feb 2018)
Match won by Harry Leitch. Result: 3-11,7-11,5-11.
Starting level for
Seigo Masuda:
8,248, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Harry Leitch:
12,171, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Harry Leitch to win as he is currently playing
48% better than Seigo Masuda.
Harry Leitch won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harry Leitch played
120% better than Seigo Masuda in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Harry Leitch actually played at a level of
14,861 and Seigo Masuda at a level of
6,755. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 22% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 18% and 18% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harry Leitch changes to +18% and Seigo Masuda changes to -15%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harry Leitch becomes +4.8% and for Seigo Masuda becomes -4.6%.
Given Harry Leitch's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 23% has been applied to his level change.
Given Seigo Masuda's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 12% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2017/18' so the adjustment for Harry Leitch is +2.9% and for Seigo Masuda is -3.1%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harry Leitch: 86%, Seigo Masuda: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harry Leitch: 70%, Seigo Masuda: 75%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Seigo Masuda:
7,991, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Harry Leitch:
12,506, level confidence: 70%.