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Paul Garbutt v Mike Bleay (Fri 16 Feb 2018)

Match won by Paul Garbutt. Result: 15-10,15-9,13-15,15-4.

Starting level for Paul Garbutt: 2,119, level confidence: 41%.
Starting level for Mike Bleay: 1,450, level confidence: 61%.
Paul Garbutt to win as he is currently playing 46% better than Mike Bleay.

Paul Garbutt won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 53% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Garbutt played 34% better than Mike Bleay in this match.

In this case, Paul Garbutt played at level 1,986 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Paul Garbutt would normally have been playing at level 2,028 (based on typical behaviour), Mike Bleay played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Garbutt changes to 0% and Mike Bleay changes to +1.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Garbutt becomes 0% and for Mike Bleay becomes +1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Vintage Winter 2017/18' so the adjustment for Paul Garbutt is 0% and for Mike Bleay is +0.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Garbutt: 64%, Mike Bleay: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Garbutt: 62%, Mike Bleay: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Garbutt: 2,116, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Mike Bleay: 1,459, level confidence: 75%.