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Abdullah Al Muzayen v Ryan Pasqual (Sun 04 Mar 2018)

Match won by Abdullah Al Muzayen. Result: 11-4,11-5,11-4.

Starting level for Abdullah Al Muzayen: 29,158, level confidence: 47%.
Starting level for Ryan Pasqual: 9,101, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Abdullah Al Muzayen to win as he is currently playing 220% better than Ryan Pasqual.

Abdullah Al Muzayen won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Abdullah Al Muzayen played 154% better than Ryan Pasqual in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Abdullah Al Muzayen was taking it easy by anything up to 27%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 15,704 and 29,158 without affecting his level.

In this case, Abdullah Al Muzayen played at level 23,103 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Ryan Pasqual is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Abdullah Al Muzayen: 69%, Ryan Pasqual: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Abdullah Al Muzayen: 61%, Ryan Pasqual: 79%.

Final level for Abdullah Al Muzayen: 29,158, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Ryan Pasqual: 9,101, level confidence: 79%.