Abdullah Al Muzayen v Amaad Fareed (Mon 05 Mar 2018)
Match won by Abdullah Al Muzayen. Result: 11-9,14-12,7-11,12-10.
Starting level for
Abdullah Al Muzayen:
29,128, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for
Amaad Fareed:
18,479, level confidence: 60%.
Abdullah Al Muzayen to win as he is currently playing
58% better than Amaad Fareed.
Abdullah Al Muzayen won 75% of the games and 51% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 5% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Abdullah Al Muzayen played
18% better than Amaad Fareed in this match.
As Abdullah Al Muzayen has played below his allowed range at 23,754, his level reduction is 8.6% before damping. On the assumption that Abdullah Al Muzayen would normally have been playing at level 27,417 (based on typical behaviour), Amaad Fareed played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 12%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.8% and 9.4% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Abdullah Al Muzayen changes to -6.7% and Amaad Fareed changes to +9.4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Abdullah Al Muzayen becomes -2% and for Amaad Fareed becomes +2.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Malaysian Tour No6' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Abdullah Al Muzayen: 78%, Amaad Fareed: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Abdullah Al Muzayen: 68%, Amaad Fareed: 67%.
Final level for Abdullah Al Muzayen:
28,570, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Amaad Fareed:
18,973, level confidence: 67%.