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Abdullah Al Muzayen v Shehab Essam (Tue 06 Mar 2018)

Match won by Abdullah Al Muzayen. Result: 7-11,11-6,11-4,11-7.

Starting level for Abdullah Al Muzayen: 28,636, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Shehab Essam: 26,291, level confidence: 64%.
Abdullah Al Muzayen to win as he is currently playing 9% better than Shehab Essam.

Abdullah Al Muzayen won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Abdullah Al Muzayen played 31% better than Shehab Essam in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Abdullah Al Muzayen actually played at a level of 31,392 and Shehab Essam at a level of 23,983. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.6% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Abdullah Al Muzayen changes to +8.7% and Shehab Essam changes to -9.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Abdullah Al Muzayen becomes +2.3% and for Shehab Essam becomes -2.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Malaysian Tour No6' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Abdullah Al Muzayen: 82%, Shehab Essam: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Abdullah Al Muzayen: 75%, Shehab Essam: 73%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Abdullah Al Muzayen: 29,179, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Shehab Essam: 25,717, level confidence: 73%.