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Abdullah Al Muzayen v Tayyab Aslam (Wed 07 Mar 2018)

Match won by Abdullah Al Muzayen. Result: 11-3,8-11,12-10,11-6.

Starting level for Abdullah Al Muzayen: 29,141, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tayyab Aslam: 21,587, level confidence: 68%.
Abdullah Al Muzayen to win as he is currently playing 35% better than Tayyab Aslam.

Abdullah Al Muzayen won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 40% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Abdullah Al Muzayen played 30% better than Tayyab Aslam in this match.

In this case, Abdullah Al Muzayen played at level 28,180 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Abdullah Al Muzayen would normally have been playing at level 28,308 (based on typical behaviour), Tayyab Aslam played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Abdullah Al Muzayen changes to 0% and Tayyab Aslam changes to +0.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Abdullah Al Muzayen becomes 0% and for Tayyab Aslam becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Malaysian Tour No6' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Abdullah Al Muzayen: 86%, Tayyab Aslam: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Abdullah Al Muzayen: 85%, Tayyab Aslam: 81%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Abdullah Al Muzayen: 29,060, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Tayyab Aslam: 21,747, level confidence: 81%.