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Tom Tuite-Dalton v Sam Osborne (Tue 17 Apr 2018)

Match won by Tom Tuite-Dalton. Result: 3-1.

Starting level for Tom Tuite-Dalton: 1,451, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for Sam Osborne: 1,432, level confidence: 56%.
Tom Tuite-Dalton to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Sam Osborne.

Tom Tuite-Dalton won 75% of the games. There are no points scores.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tom Tuite-Dalton actually played at a level of 1,612 and Sam Osborne at a level of 1,289. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 11.1% to match this result.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 8.7%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Tuite-Dalton changes to +5.9% and Sam Osborne changes to -8.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Tuite-Dalton becomes +3.8% and for Sam Osborne becomes -5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Henley Internal League' so the adjustment for Tom Tuite-Dalton is +1.9% and for Sam Osborne is -2.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Tuite-Dalton: 91%, Sam Osborne: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Tuite-Dalton: 82%, Sam Osborne: 67%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tom Tuite-Dalton: 1,477, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Sam Osborne: 1,396, level confidence: 67%.