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Adam Hurst v Tom Tuite-Dalton (Sat 19 May 2018)

Match won by Adam Hurst. Result: 3-1.

Starting level for Adam Hurst: 1,513, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Tom Tuite-Dalton: 1,537, level confidence: 59%.
Tom Tuite-Dalton to win as he is currently playing 2% better than Adam Hurst.

Adam Hurst won 75% of the games. There are no points scores.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adam Hurst actually played at a level of 1,705 and Tom Tuite-Dalton at a level of 1,364. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 9.9%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adam Hurst changes to +9.9% and Tom Tuite-Dalton changes to -9.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adam Hurst becomes +5.4% and for Tom Tuite-Dalton becomes -5.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Henley Internal League' so the adjustment for Adam Hurst is +2.7% and for Tom Tuite-Dalton is -2.6%.

As Adam Hurst has a provisional level, this match has been used to calibrate his level so Tom Tuite-Dalton's level has been left unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adam Hurst: 77%, Tom Tuite-Dalton: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adam Hurst: 68%, Tom Tuite-Dalton: 68%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Adam Hurst: 1,551, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Tom Tuite-Dalton: 1,535, level confidence: 68%.