Mohamed Elshorbagy v Gregory Gaultier (Sat 19 May 2018)
Match won by Mohamed Elshorbagy. Result: 8-11,11-6,11-6,3-11,11-5.
Starting level for
Mohamed Elshorbagy:
61,542, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Gregory Gaultier:
71,130, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Gregory Gaultier to win as he is currently playing
16% better than Mohamed Elshorbagy.
Mohamed Elshorbagy won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 13% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Elshorbagy played
11% better than Gregory Gaultier in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mohamed Elshorbagy actually played at a level of
69,614 and Gregory Gaultier at a level of
62,882. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy changes to +10.4% and Gregory Gaultier changes to -12%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy becomes +2.3% and for Gregory Gaultier becomes -2.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA British Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 92%, Gregory Gaultier: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 81%, Gregory Gaultier: 75%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Mohamed Elshorbagy:
62,968, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Gregory Gaultier:
69,482, level confidence: 75%.