Rick Scannell v James Mead (Tue 22 May 2018)
Match won by James Mead. Result: 1-3.
Starting level for
Rick Scannell:
261, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for
James Mead:
320, level confidence: 30%.
James Mead to win as he is currently playing
23% better than Rick Scannell.
James Mead won 75% of the games. There are no points scores.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Mead actually played at a level of
323 and Rick Scannell at a level of
258. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1% to match this result.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 0.7%.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Mead changes to +0.7% and Rick Scannell changes to 0%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Mead becomes +0.7% and for Rick Scannell becomes 0%.
Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Henley Internal League' so the adjustment for James Mead is +0.4% and for Rick Scannell is 0%.
As James Mead has a provisional level, this match has been used to calibrate his level so Rick Scannell's level has been left unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Mead: 55%, Rick Scannell: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Mead: 54%, Rick Scannell: 87%.
Final level for Rick Scannell:
261, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for James Mead:
321, level confidence: 54%.