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Ray Owens v Oliver Collin (Tue 22 May 2018)

Match won by Ray Owens. Result: 3-2.

Starting level for Ray Owens: 265, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Oliver Collin: 229, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Ray Owens to win as he is currently playing 16% better than Oliver Collin.

Ray Owens won 60% of the games. There are no points scores.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.

As Ray Owens has played below his allowed range at 257, his level reduction is 1.9% before damping. On the assumption that Ray Owens would normally have been playing at level 264 (based on typical behaviour), Oliver Collin played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.3%.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 1.9%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ray Owens changes to -1.6% and Oliver Collin changes to +1.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ray Owens becomes -1.6% and for Oliver Collin becomes +1.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Henley Internal League' so the adjustment for Ray Owens is -0.8% and for Oliver Collin is +1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ray Owens: 88%, Oliver Collin: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ray Owens: 86%, Oliver Collin: 86%.

Final level for Ray Owens: 263, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Oliver Collin: 231, level confidence: 86%.