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Jill Campion v Tom Tuite-Dalton (Fri 25 May 2018)

Match won by Jill Campion. Result: 3-2.

Starting level for Jill Campion: 1,650, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Tom Tuite-Dalton: 1,504, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Jill Campion to win as she is currently playing 10% better than Tom Tuite-Dalton.

Jill Campion won 60% of the games. There are no points scores.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 10%.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jill Campion actually played at a level of 1,652 and Tom Tuite-Dalton at a level of 1,502. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0% to match this result.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 0%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jill Campion changes to 0% and Tom Tuite-Dalton changes to 0%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jill Campion becomes +0.1% and for Tom Tuite-Dalton becomes 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jill Campion: 79%, Tom Tuite-Dalton: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jill Campion: 79%, Tom Tuite-Dalton: 87%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jill Campion: 1,648, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Tom Tuite-Dalton: 1,501, level confidence: 87%.