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Dan Andrews v Duncan Whale (Thu 31 May 2018)

Match won by Dan Andrews. Result: 3-1.

Starting level for Dan Andrews: 1,279, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Duncan Whale: 818, level confidence: 64%.
Dan Andrews to win as he is currently playing 56% better than Duncan Whale.

Dan Andrews won 75% of the games. There are no points scores.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.

As Dan Andrews has played below his allowed range at 1,063, his level reduction is 3.9% before damping. On the assumption that Dan Andrews would normally have been playing at level 1,206 (based on typical behaviour), Duncan Whale played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.1% and 6.8% respectively.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 5.4%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dan Andrews changes to -2.4% and Duncan Whale changes to +5.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dan Andrews becomes -2.2% and for Duncan Whale becomes +4.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Henley Internal League' so the adjustment for Dan Andrews is -1.1% and for Duncan Whale is +2.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dan Andrews: 82%, Duncan Whale: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dan Andrews: 73%, Duncan Whale: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Dan Andrews: 1,264, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Duncan Whale: 834, level confidence: 71%.