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Freddie Davis v Rawdon Prothero (Sat 02 Jun 2018)

Match won by Freddie Davis. Result: 11-8,4-11,12-10,12-10.

Starting level for Freddie Davis: 355, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Rawdon Prothero: 500, level confidence: 41%.
Rawdon Prothero to win as he is currently playing 41% better than Freddie Davis.

Freddie Davis won 75% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 0% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Freddie Davis played 17% better than Rawdon Prothero in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Freddie Davis actually played at a level of 455 and Rawdon Prothero at a level of 390. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 23% and 23% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Freddie Davis changes to +14% and Rawdon Prothero changes to -23%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Freddie Davis becomes +8.3% and for Rawdon Prothero becomes -13%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Kent Junior Open 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Rawdon Prothero is limited to -10% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Freddie Davis: 83%, Rawdon Prothero: 64%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Freddie Davis: 65%, Rawdon Prothero: 50%.

A final adjustment of +2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Freddie Davis: 385, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Rawdon Prothero: 472, level confidence: 50%.