Freddie Davis v Bill Golding (Sat 02 Jun 2018)
Match won by Freddie Davis. Result: 14-12,11-5,11-5.
Starting level for
Freddie Davis:
346, level confidence: 55%.
Starting level for
Bill Golding:
245, level confidence: 10%.
Freddie Davis to win as he is currently playing
41% better than Bill Golding.
Freddie Davis won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 64% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Freddie Davis played
64% better than Bill Golding in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Freddie Davis actually played at a level of
372 and Bill Golding at a level of
228. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.6% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.4% and 6.4% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Freddie Davis changes to +1.2% and Bill Golding changes to -6.4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Freddie Davis becomes +1.2% and for Bill Golding becomes -4.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Kent Junior Open 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Freddie Davis: 74%, Bill Golding: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Freddie Davis: 69%, Bill Golding: 29%.
A final adjustment of +1.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Freddie Davis:
351, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Bill Golding:
240, level confidence: 29%.