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Jude Gibbins v Freddie Davis (Sat 02 Jun 2018)

Match won by Jude Gibbins. Result: 11-6,11-7,11-3.

Starting level for Jude Gibbins: 1,438, level confidence: 42%.
Starting level for Freddie Davis: 387, level confidence: 65%.
Jude Gibbins to win as he is currently playing 272% better than Freddie Davis.

Jude Gibbins won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jude Gibbins played 106% better than Freddie Davis in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Jude Gibbins was taking it easy by anything up to 32%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 670 and 1,438 without affecting his level.

In this case, Jude Gibbins played at level 885 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Jude Gibbins would normally have been playing at level 981 (based on typical behaviour), Freddie Davis played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 5.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jude Gibbins changes to 0% and Freddie Davis changes to +3.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jude Gibbins becomes 0% and for Freddie Davis becomes +3.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Kent Junior Open 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jude Gibbins: 65%, Freddie Davis: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jude Gibbins: 48%, Freddie Davis: 60%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jude Gibbins: 1,442, level confidence: 48%.
Final level for Freddie Davis: 401, level confidence: 60%.