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Gregory Gaultier v Raphael Kandra (Wed 30 May 2018)

Match won by Gregory Gaultier. Result: 12-10,11-9,4-11,11-7.

Starting level for Gregory Gaultier: 69,145, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Raphael Kandra: 44,826, level confidence: 69%.
Gregory Gaultier to win as he is currently playing 54% better than Raphael Kandra.

Gregory Gaultier won 75% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 3% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gregory Gaultier played 18% better than Raphael Kandra in this match.

As Gregory Gaultier has played below his allowed range at 57,120, his level reduction is 8.3% before damping. On the assumption that Gregory Gaultier would normally have been playing at level 65,407 (based on typical behaviour), Raphael Kandra played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 11%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.6% and 9.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gregory Gaultier changes to -6.4% and Raphael Kandra changes to +9.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gregory Gaultier becomes -1.6% and for Raphael Kandra becomes +2.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Necker Pro Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gregory Gaultier: 84%, Raphael Kandra: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gregory Gaultier: 74%, Raphael Kandra: 73%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gregory Gaultier: 68,032, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Raphael Kandra: 45,965, level confidence: 73%.