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Joe Burbank v Tom Tuite-Dalton (Thu 14 Jun 2018)

Match won by Joe Burbank. Result: 9-7,9-4,10-9.

Starting level for Joe Burbank: 2,505, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tom Tuite-Dalton: 1,501, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Joe Burbank to win as he is currently playing 67% better than Tom Tuite-Dalton.

Joe Burbank won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 18% (english scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joe Burbank played 30% better than Tom Tuite-Dalton in this match.

As Joe Burbank has played below his allowed range at 2,027, his level reduction is 3.7% before damping. On the assumption that Joe Burbank would normally have been playing at level 2,325 (based on typical behaviour), Tom Tuite-Dalton played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.9% and 6.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joe Burbank changes to -2.9% and Tom Tuite-Dalton changes to +6.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joe Burbank becomes -2% and for Tom Tuite-Dalton becomes +4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Oxfordshire Mens Summer League 2018' so the adjustment for Joe Burbank is -1.3% and for Tom Tuite-Dalton is +2.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joe Burbank: 86%, Tom Tuite-Dalton: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joe Burbank: 76%, Tom Tuite-Dalton: 79%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joe Burbank: 2,469, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Tom Tuite-Dalton: 1,537, level confidence: 79%.