Oliver Collin v James Mortimer (Sun 17 Jun 2018)
Match won by Oliver Collin. Result: 3-0.
Starting level for
Oliver Collin:
235, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Starting level for
James Mortimer:
249, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
James Mortimer to win as he is currently playing
6% better than Oliver Collin.
Oliver Collin won all of the games. There are no points scores.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Oliver Collin actually played at a level of
320 and James Mortimer at a level of
183. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 36% to match this result.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 19%.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Oliver Collin changes to +17% and James Mortimer changes to -19%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Oliver Collin becomes +9.6% and for James Mortimer becomes -10.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Henley Internal League' so the adjustment for Oliver Collin is +4.8% and for James Mortimer is -5%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Oliver Collin: 93%, James Mortimer: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Oliver Collin: 68%, James Mortimer: 64%.
Final level for Oliver Collin:
246, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for James Mortimer:
237, level confidence: 64%.