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Tom Tuite-Dalton v Tim Budden (Tue 19 Jun 2018)

Match won by Tom Tuite-Dalton. Result: 3-2.

Starting level for Tom Tuite-Dalton: 1,594, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tim Budden: 1,276, level confidence: 58%.
Tom Tuite-Dalton to win as he is currently playing 25% better than Tim Budden.

Tom Tuite-Dalton won 60% of the games. There are no points scores.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.

As Tom Tuite-Dalton has played below his allowed range at 1,466, his level reduction is 4.4% before damping. On the assumption that Tom Tuite-Dalton would normally have been playing at level 1,568 (based on typical behaviour), Tim Budden played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.9% and 5.1% respectively.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 4.6%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Tuite-Dalton changes to -2.7% and Tim Budden changes to +4.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Tuite-Dalton becomes -2.3% and for Tim Budden becomes +3.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Henley Internal League' so the adjustment for Tom Tuite-Dalton is -1.1% and for Tim Budden is +1.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Tuite-Dalton: 86%, Tim Budden: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Tuite-Dalton: 81%, Tim Budden: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tom Tuite-Dalton: 1,574, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Tim Budden: 1,296, level confidence: 71%.