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Sam Osborne v Tom Tuite-Dalton (Fri 29 Jun 2018)

Match won by Sam Osborne. Result: 3-1.

Starting level for Sam Osborne: 1,383, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tom Tuite-Dalton: 1,569, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Tom Tuite-Dalton to win as he is currently playing 13% better than Sam Osborne.

Sam Osborne won 75% of the games. There are no points scores.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Sam Osborne actually played at a level of 1,647 and Tom Tuite-Dalton at a level of 1,318. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 14%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Sam Osborne changes to +14% and Tom Tuite-Dalton changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Sam Osborne becomes +7.3% and for Tom Tuite-Dalton becomes -6.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Henley Internal League' so the adjustment for Sam Osborne is +3.6% and for Tom Tuite-Dalton is -3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Sam Osborne: 86%, Tom Tuite-Dalton: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Sam Osborne: 73%, Tom Tuite-Dalton: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Sam Osborne: 1,431, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Tom Tuite-Dalton: 1,521, level confidence: 78%.