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Steve Dance v Duncan Whale (Fri 29 Jun 2018)

Match won by Steve Dance. Result: 3-1.

Starting level for Steve Dance: 949, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Duncan Whale: 862, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Steve Dance to win as he is currently playing 10% better than Duncan Whale.

Steve Dance won 75% of the games. There are no points scores.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Steve Dance actually played at a level of 1,011 and Duncan Whale at a level of 809. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.6% to match this result.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 5%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Steve Dance changes to +5% and Duncan Whale changes to -4.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Steve Dance becomes +4% and for Duncan Whale becomes -3.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Henley Internal League' so the adjustment for Steve Dance is +2% and for Duncan Whale is -1.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steve Dance: 86%, Duncan Whale: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steve Dance: 80%, Duncan Whale: 84%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Steve Dance: 966, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Duncan Whale: 845, level confidence: 84%.