Sean Massie v Ray Owens (Fri 29 Jun 2018)
Match won by Sean Massie. Result: 3-0.
Starting level for
Sean Massie:
312, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for
Ray Owens:
274, level confidence: 65%.
Sean Massie to win as he is currently playing
14% better than Ray Owens.
Sean Massie won all of the games. There are no points scores.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Sean Massie actually played at a level of
387 and Ray Owens at a level of
221. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 24% to match this result.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 12%.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Sean Massie changes to +12% and Ray Owens changes to -11%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Sean Massie becomes +7.5% and for Ray Owens becomes -7.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Henley Internal League' so the adjustment for Sean Massie is +3.7% and for Ray Owens is -3.4%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Sean Massie: 78%, Ray Owens: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Sean Massie: 63%, Ray Owens: 65%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Sean Massie:
323, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Ray Owens:
265, level confidence: 65%.