James Mortimer v Claudia Cattich (Fri 29 Jun 2018)
Match won by James Mortimer. Result: 3-2.
Starting level for
James Mortimer:
233, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for
Claudia Cattich:
166, level confidence: 61%.
James Mortimer to win as he is currently playing
40% better than Claudia Cattich.
James Mortimer won 60% of the games. There are no points scores.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.
As James Mortimer has played below his allowed range at 197, his level reduction is 8% before damping. On the assumption that James Mortimer would normally have been playing at level 225 (based on typical behaviour), Claudia Cattich played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.9%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.7% and 9.2% respectively.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 8.3%.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Mortimer changes to -5.7% and Claudia Cattich changes to +8.3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Mortimer becomes -4.4% and for Claudia Cattich becomes +5.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Henley Internal League' so the adjustment for James Mortimer is -2.2% and for Claudia Cattich is +2.8%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Mortimer: 80%, Claudia Cattich: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Mortimer: 71%, Claudia Cattich: 69%.
A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for James Mortimer:
228, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Claudia Cattich:
170, level confidence: 69%.